4 and Out

What makes a great coach stand out from a good one?  Sure, they can all make easy decisions  - putting the star player on the field, taking off an injured player etc. But what makes a great coach is the ability to make things happen - the ability to turn a 50:50 scenario into a positive outcome, to win in adverse circumstances and to get the best of players.  It is also the ability to take gambles and make them pay off.  A coach who can take a risk and reap the benefits is a precious commodity.

The Saints grab the ball
(somewhere in that melee)

One of the key moments in the New Orleans Saints victory at SuperBowl XLIV was Thomas Morstead starting the second half with an onside kick.  It was seen as a massive gamble by Coach Sean Peyton - but it wasn't just a case of Peyton throwing caution to the wind and hoping for the best.  The Saints had practiced the "Ambush" play cxtensively in the build up to the game, and when Peyton called it during the half time break, Morstead and the Special Teams unit knew what they had to do.  They even told the referees to look out for the play and made sure the Saints staff were on the side of the field that the kick was heading towards.  All little things to help influence the outcome of the kick.  When you put all the factors together, the onside kick becomes less of a gamble and more of a clever piece of strategy.  Sure enough, the Saints recovered the kick and it was seen as being a big turning point in the match.  Yes, it was a gamble and could have failed, but by planning fully for the gamble, Peyton gave his team the best possible chance of pulling it off.

At the other end of the "coaching gamble" spectrum is poor Mike Smith at Atlanta.  Despite a very good record with the Falcons, Smith is best known for his failure to convert 4th Downs.  Most famously was, coincidentally enough, the 2011 home match with the Saints when instead of punting, he decided to gamble on converting a 4th and 1 from his own 29 yard line during Overtime.  A risky move in anyone's book, and one that failed, leading to the Saints getting the ball and winning the match.  Smith was castigated for the decision, but statistically 74% of 4th and 1 (or less) attempts are successful.  Which suggests that the error wasn't Smith's decision to attempt the 4th down conversion, but the play he called to achieve his aim and/or his players execution of it.  The play was a simple run up the middle of the field, which the Saints defence read and subsequently stopped.  A more creative call could  - and I stress could - have given the Falcons a 1st down and carried on a match winning drive.
Just to add to Smith's woes, the Falcons have failed to convert from similar situations in play off defeats in the last 2 seasons.  Again, it's not a case of Smith making the wrong decision in going for the conversion.  He is just making the wrong play calls.

As it goes, the Falcons have recently been removed from my search for a team.  Which probably saves them from more misery, as my next elimination is going to be the team with the worst 4th down conversion rate in the league in 2011.  I don't want to support a team that can't execute these vital plays or one that makes bad decisions in 4th down situations.  Generally speaking there are 3 circumstances in which a team goes for it on 4th down:

 * The trick play - The element of surprise, a fake field goal or a fake punt.  The opposition are off guard and the kicker can throw a pass or go on a run.  They are also more elaborate versions of this, but however you attempt it, preparation is key to its success.

* Short yardage - "Smith Country", getting the ball a few inches forwards.  Sounds easy but often goes wrong.  Clearly the players need to execute but it's up to the coaches to pick the right play, spot the mismatches and give the players the best chance of success.

Nicks catches the Hail Mary
(somewhere in that melee)

* Desperation - The last second Hail Mary or a hopeful heave down the middle.  Harder to be critical when this fails but there is an art to it and special players/coaches can make it work.  Witness Hakeem Nicks effort against the Packers in the play offs - New York executed the play correctly, Green Bay didn't. (NB - I know this wasn't a 4th down but it was a 4th downesque desperation play)

That's enough conjecture, let's look at the 4th Down success rates of each team in 2011...

Detroit Lions 57%

Philadelphia Eagles 46% 

Minnesota Vikings 38%

New York Jets 36%

Houston Texans 27%

Of the other 27 teams, the Titans came out on top with 10 out of 14 4th down gambles paying off (74%), whilst at number were the Denver Broncos with a pathetic 23%.  The Texans were 30th in the table with just  3 successes from 11 attempts, meaning it is they who bite the dust.

Andre Johnson recreates the first photo!

Wow! I had the Texans down as my favourites to win, not sure why, as the process is very open but I just had a gut feeling Houston would pull through. Shows what I know!  I actually think the Texans are a good tip for the SuperBowl next season.  A fit Schaub, plus Foster and Johnson is a tough match for any defence. Add to that Wade Philips revamped defence and you've got the makings of a powerful outfit in a relatively weak division.

I'm down to my final four, and there are just 3 rounds left.  Which makes the next elimination a Quarter Final of sorts and a good time to take stock and recap on my previous categories...whilst eliminating a team in the process.

The next elimination will be up on Friday this week so check back then to find out who has made my Final 3!