Eagles v Lions - The Grand Final

Intro:  If you'd have asked me at the start of my search who I thought would make the final, it's fair to say that these 2 wouldn't have been my answer. But such are the vagaries of this process.  In fact, I'm happy with both of my finalists - after all they have come through some pretty tricky tests, not least surviving the "worst city to visit" round! A topic that still causes arguments in my household.

This time last Thursday I was in Madrid, sitting (well standing) with a few thousand Besiktas fans watching them lose 3-1 to Athletico - what a difference a week makes!  Anyway, it's all set for an exciting finale. The ingredients are:

* A 2nd hand Xbox
* A 2nd hand copy of Madden 07
* My bedroom
* Occasional flicks to Channel 5 to see how the Bilbao -Man U game is going on.
* And most importantly, a cpu v cpu game between the Eagles and Lions to decide who gains my loyal support for the rest of my NFL watching life.
* If anybody happens to be reading this during the match and wants to make a comment, can you do it below rather than on a forum - doubt I'll check any forums until I post the outcome later.

Just had a lovely bit of salmon for dinner, so in high spirits before kick off.  The Eagles have home advantage for what it's worth (nothing!), and I'm making them favorites given the strength of the rosters in 07, but in a one off match up anything can happen. Roy Williams may even make a couple of catches.
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PreMatch:  Andy Reid must be the easiest person ever for a game designer to replicate.  Our starting QBs are McNabb and John Kitna - which perfectly illustrates the rapid changing nature of the NFL,  as well as the rapidly expanding waist lines of the players in question.  Detroit will kick off.

0-0 Eagles have first possession, starting at their 27.  It's snowing! I find the comms annoying but it's the only way I can tell who's who. Westbrook is the Eagles RB and makes a couple of decent gains before McNabb turns into 2011 MacNabb and throws 3 dire passes. Punt goes long so the Lions start at the 20.

0-0  The Lions start with a great throw by Kitna that Brown (who he?) catches for a gain of 26.  Another decent gain and the Lions are at halfway.  Hmm, the Lions O line is woeful and Kitna gets dumped for a big sack.  Lions punt only goes 15 yards!

0-0  Now the Eagles  waste their possession and are forced into a quick punt.  McNabb is 0-5 so far!  The punt is returned for about 10 so Lions start from the 35.

0-0  Kitna throws a shocker to Williams but 3 Eagles contrive to drop an easy int.  And again, awful pass to nobody but the Eagles make a hash of the catch.  This is a terrible game!  More O Line problems and Kitna is sacked by Kearse.  Punt number 4!  I'm going to see how the football is going...on good United are still losing.

0-0  New camera angle! Side on now - the highlight of the match so far.  Westbrook makes a couple of 2 yard gains before McNabb decides to run around for a bit until he gets tackled. Punt time!
jrt5555 has found evidence of my Andy Reid video game comment http://angrybirdsgoldeneggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Angry-Birds-Mustached-Pigs.jpg .


0-0 Something happens!  Schlesinger fumbles after a 7 yard run, but the Lions recover and earn a 1st down. Not sure why a member of the Pussycat Dolls is playing.  An 11 yard run by Jones takes us to the end of the first Quarter and time for a football update...5-2 Bilbao! Up yours United!


2nd Quarter


0-0 Lions on halfway.  "P" reckons that Reid looks like a Swedish politician called Håkan Juholt.  I'm saying Bob Carolgees!  Juholt that is, not Reid

   

   





Back in the snow, and the Lions are stuck in midfield again.  More long garbage from Kitna and the Lions have to punt.  Fernando Torres appears to be punting for Detroit as another effort goes way off target and out of bounds for a short gain.  Lions are offering more coming forward but can't pin the Eagles back.

0-0  McNabb completes a pass!!!!  Takes the Eagles to the Det43, then reverts to type with a shocking attempt at a deep ball.  Westbrook gians 4 and it's 3-6.
Interception! Mcnabb finally pays for his ineptitude by throwing an easy pick to Kennedy.  Lions to start at the 30.

0-0  The Lions line is disintegrating but Kitna throws a great pass to Williams for a first down.  The Lions are the better team but can't get past midfield.
They can now, great catch from Rogers for a 34yd gain and up to the Eagles 31 as it's time for the 2 minute warning/Europa League check.  Sodding Rooney!

"anonymous" - only one int so far.  Just feels like more!

0-0 Great chance for the Lions to put points on the board before HT.  Kitna goes for 7 and make that 2 interceptions.  Bryan Dawkins picks it off at the 9 before Williams drills him.

0-0 For the love of Jesus H Christ! Eagles decide to run the clock down with a couple of runs and the Lions don't call any timeouts.  At this rate, there might be a replay!  The Eagles limp for a 1st down at the 18 and then just wind down to half time.

Half Time 0-0 - That was a shocking half.  I'd been looking forward to this and it's been a damper squib than a saturated squib.  Off to tell my girlfriend how rubbish it's been.  Second half in ten minutes.

0-0  Detroit start at the 19 but Kitna is picked off from the first play!  Short pass down the middle is easily picked off by Lewis.

0-3  More McNabb dross, but at least the Eagles get some points on the board thanks to a kick from Akers.  Akers doesn't do his trademark FG celebration.  Possibly because this isn't real.  I did try and get Andy Reid and Jim Schwarz to play an off season game for my services but they weren't up for it.

0-3  Oh dear, the Lions turn the ball over again on their first play.  This time Jones fumbles and Dawkins recovers.  Dawkins appears to be playing a different game to everybody else.

0-6  McNabb rating is 4.9! He's 2 from 12 with a pick. Westbrook is at least doing his bit with a 4.9 average but it's not enough for a first down.  Akers kicks a 37 yarder and the Eagles have a small cushion.

0-6 At least they didn't turn it over! However it is a quick 3 and out from the Lions.  Eagles will start from the 35 as Harris finally keeps a punt on the island.

0-13  This is unraveling for the Lions, a big heave from McNabb draws a flag for pass interference.  No idea you'd bother interfering with a McNabb pass!  Eagles are down to the 18 ...Touchdown Eagles!!!
Finally McNabb finds his range and finds the completely unmarked Pinkston.  Akers does the PAT and I start wondering how I'd look in dark green.

End of the Third Quarter - The Lions need 2 scores and given that they've barely reached the Eagles half it looks unlikely.  However the Eagles were even worse before HT so anything could happen. It may help if the Lions can keep the ball for more than 10 seconds!

0-13  Kearse is challenging Dawkins for MVP here, another huge hit on Jones results in a loss, before he plants Kitna for another sack.  Harris comes in for about the 50th time today and takes us to halfway.

0-13 12 yard run from Westbrook and it's looking bad for Detroit. Westbrook picks up another 1st down  and the Eagles are back to the 20.  jrt5555 is putting the champagne on ice, I'm about to open a Spitfire.
Westbrook dives for another 1st and is down to the 10.

2 Minute Warning.  Detroit have actually defended well apart from the TD drive but their offence has been dire.

0-20  Touchdown! What a catch from Reggie Brown! Completely ignoring the fact that I've never heard of him he catches a hopeful pass from McNabb and somehow manages to get his feet down in bounds despite being double teamed by the Lions.  Akers kicks the PAT and the Lions need Tebow Times 2.

0-20  Surely in real life, Kitna would have benched, released and banned from Detroit by now.  Actually he'd be happy about the last bit!  Finally, Roy Williams does what he does best and drops an easy catch with nobody near him.  To be fair to Kitna, he's not been helped by either his receivers or his joke of an O Line.
4th and 15..but Kitna is sacked by Howard and that is surely that. Just 1 minute 37 to go and the Eagles and Westbrook has been solid with the ball.  Hats off to Craigus89 who predicted an easy Eagles win.
0-20  Westbrook makes a couple of nice gains to take it to the 2.  Dawkins wins the MVP award (sponsored by Snickers..."Snickers satisfies") for his interception, fumble recovery and not allowing a catch. Into the final minute now and the fat man is singing.

0-23  Detroit call a time out with 20 seconds remaining after a decent goalline stand.  Akers kicks a short FG and the Lions get the ball for the last rites.

0-23  Kitna gets sacked for the 8th time, so next play he decides to throw a quick hail mary....it goes out of bounds.  Hail Mary 2 is equally as poor and that will be that!

Detroit Lions 0  Philadelphia Eagles 23


Which means I am now officially an Eagles fan!  Andy Reid trudges off the field looking like he's lost his dinner money whilst McNabb jumps around with more athleticism then he manged to show during the game!
Not the classic I hoped for but the Eagles were worthy winners thanks to great defensive displays from Kearse and Dawkins plus some solid running by Westbrook and a brilliant catch by someone called Reggie Brown!  The Lions were completely inept, largely thanks to a flimsy O line, an awful QB and not much of a running game.

Back in the real world, I'm happy with the outcome.  It's been a long journey, but one I've greatly enjoyed and it's given me a real thirst for blogging about the NFL.  I'm going to have a few days off from writing before recommencing next week.  I've decided to split my blogs between general pieces about aspects of supporting NFL teams with timely pieces on what's going on in the league - for example next week I may write about the recent history of the league and something about Free Agency. It wont be Eagles heavy so you can still read it even if they aren't you team.  But I will be mentioning the Eagles pretty regularly.

I've already had my first invite to an Eagles Fan Club  (Britich Eagles), thanks James, Ill check it out in the morning.
Meanwhile, I'm all NFLed out for one evening so time for a beer!

Bye Bye Bye

(Before my final elimination, I wanted to have a "non elimination" blog just to have an overview of what's happened, a preview of the final and a look at where I'll be taking the blog after the Final)

In 2 days time I will become a supporting of either the Detroit Lions or the Philadelphia Eagles.  For some weeks now, I've known how I was going to decide the Final elimination, so I can now reveal that my Team For Life will be decided by.....

Detroit Lions v Philadelphia Eagles....in a computer v computer game of Madden....07.....on an X Box.

I'm no computer game fan, both the Xbox and game are secondhand.  The game cost me a whopping £0.01 (plus p&p) from Amazon, so you can see I've invested a lot of money into ensuring I make the right decision!  Why have I chosen this method for the Final?  I'll give you 3 good reasons:

1.  It's fair.  OK, some Madden fans may know that one team is superior to the other in this version of the game but I have no idea.  Besides, even if one teams stats do outweigh their opponents then it doesn't guarantee them victory.  Of course, a lot of the "players" on show will be at different teams now or retired, but I think that makes it more fun in a way. Who wants Stafford v Vick when you can have McNabb v Kitna!

2.  I like the style of elimination.  Throughout my process there have been 3 broad ways I've got rid of teams - stats based, opinion based and randomly.  My quarter final was stats based, my semi final was an opinion, so it makes sense for the Final to be a random head to head encounter.

3.  I'm a big fan of the "in play" commentary style that a lot of news websites adopt.  Be it "over by over", "play by play" or "minute by minute", these articles help me starve off boredom at work and often offer a different perspective of the game.  This is my chance to have a go at this, and I'll be providing a running text commentary on the "match".  I may even publish a few updates during the match!

The game will consist of 5 minute quarters and I will have no influence on it at all. It will start at approximately 7pm on Thursday evening.  I've just tossed a coin and can confirm that the Eagles will have home advantage.
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I've been really pleased with the response to the blog.  When I started at the turn of the year, I had no idea how many people would take the time to read it. I wasn't even sure whether I'd reach the end of the process as a) I doubted I'd be able to come up with enough methods and b) if nobody was reading then I may have got disillusioned.   I've just hit 4000 hits so I must be doing something right I guess!

So a big thank you to everyone who's commented on the blog, tweeted it and especially to secondcityfanatics.com and 1amsports.com who have published additional articles by me.

Just to clear up a few issues....

* Yes, I know it's a silly, convoluted and illogical process.  I know some of the methods are unfair, but that's part of the game.  I'm trying to invest a lot of time and effort into this so when I do find my team in 2 days time, I will invest the same effort into supporting them.

* The whole ethos of this blog has been that there loads of ways to find a team to support and they are all equally valid.  This is just my approach.

* If I had decided to just pick a team to support then I would have gone for the Rams, based on the recent trade deal and the fact they are playing in London for the next 3 seasons.  But, that's another method of picking a team!

* Hopefully, this hasn't just been an NFL heavy blog and I've tried to not be overly technical about the sport.  It's meant to be more of a look at why we support teams and various aspects of sport.  As such, I'm going to carry on in a similar vein after the Final.  I'll be looking at various aspects of supporting a team - history, venues, players, fans etc, but in a broad way rather than just being Eagles/Lions specific.  I'll also be looking at timely moments in the off season such as Free Agency, the Draft, Training Camp etc.  All building up to Week One when I can finally watch my team in action!

* Lastly, as we've eliminated 30 teams, it stands to reason that I've learnt 30 things during my search...

1. I really don't like the Steelers

2. Nobody rates the Rams
3. The Colts had a terrible 2011
4. At least they didn't have Blaine Gabbert
5. Kansas isn't the place to go for touchdowns
6. The Bucs are rubbish at Wembley
7. The Patriots had it too easy at Wembley
8. New Orleans were great at Wembley, but not enough to win me over
9.  The Chargers were almost as great at Wembley, but didn't win me over either
10. Beating the Bucs, isn't enough to win me over.  Sorry Bears
11. Oakland commit far too many fouls.
12. Don't turn on the TV if you want to watch the Cardinals
13. The Dolphins need continuity
14. Purple isn't a great look in Baltimore
15. The Browns logo is stupid
16. I'm not a glory hunter
17. Dallas are terrible tossers
18. Don't bet your house on Graham Gano making a field goal
19. Sourdough Sam is a disgrace of a mascot
20. Moving to Seattle hasn't gone well for Zach Miller
21. Don't put Broncos in your Fantasy team
22. There's something about Green Bay I don't like.
23. The Bengals need a better back up QB
24. It's a bloody long way to Tennessee
25. My girlfriend doesn't fancy a trip to Carolina
26. NFl360 reckons I should be a Falcon
27. The Bills are rubbish at home (and away actually!)
28.  Houston can't get it down on 4th down
29. The Vikings are a weak team
30. Kevin Cadle dislikes the Jets!


All of which means that this Thursdays it's a showdown between the Eagle and the Lions....






                        or

Expert Analysis

Sports experts and TV talent shows constantly remind us that the worst time to be eliminated is in a semi final.  If you reach the final and lose then at least you've had your day in the limelight, at least you've made the big one, at least you've had the glory of winning a semi.  Semi finalists are usually forgotten, and when they are remembered, it is for all the wrong reasons -  missing a penalty, dropping a catch, being a British tennis player.  This year we've seen Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams join the roll of semi-shame.  People don't talk about the fantastic performances form the 49ers and Ravens, they talk about the missed field goal and the fumble.
This all make my penultimate elimination seem like the hardest, so hard that I'm not going to make it...

I'm no NFL expert - you've probably worked that out by now - sure, I know a fair bit and my knowledge is growing at a good rate, but there are plenty of people out there who can wipe the floor with me.  Some of them even get employed to share their views on the sport.  That's the calibre of person I want making this all important decision - somebody who really knows what they are talking about.  Unfortunately, I don't know anybody who falls into that illustrious bracket.  I've got a mate who's been in a few adverts and I saw Alan Pardew at Gatwick Airport last week, but that doesn't make me a friend to the stars.  Luckily, there's an easy way to contact the experts these days - you can tweet them!

Twitter gets a lot of bad press due to celebrities saying the wrong things and, in the wrong hands, a forum to talk openly to the world is a very bad thing.  But in terms of finding out what's going on in the world it's invaluable.  It also allows us to get the views of people who can give us interesting and intelligent opinions.  Which makes twitter perfect for me to get an NFL expert to carry out my semi final elimination.  All I needed to do was tweet an NFL expert and hope they were kind enough to reply.

One of the drawbacks of twitter is that 140 characters is pretty limiting.  As such, I spent a fair amount of time getting  the wording right so I didn't appear to be a nutter, a loser or a stalker (or a combination of the 3), in the end I settled for a succinct:

                 "Be great if you could just give me a short ans: Who would you least like to support - Jets,        Eagles or Lions?"

Add the blog and the recipients twitter address and you've got exactly 140 characters.  Who do I send the question to? Well, seeing as I spend my Sunday evening watching the NFL on British TV, why not ask the people who appear on my screens every week?  So, I sent my tweets to Neil Reynolds, Mike Carlson and Kevin Cadle.  The purpose being that I'd eliminate the team selected by the first person to reply.  But would any of them bother answering my very random and ever so slightly trite question?  Happily, the answer was yes, in fact Kevin Cadle replied very quickly

No man is an island?

Which means I can reveal that the team to miss out on a place in my personal Superbowl are the New York Jets.  "Jets, Same Division as the Bills" were Mr Cadle's exact words.  Which given his very open support of Buffalo comes as no surprise.  To confirm that I was making the right decision, Mike Carlson also replied with "Jets...obviously".  Nothing yet from My Reynolds, so either it's proving a tough decision or he's got better things to do on a Sunday afternoon. I'm thinking it's more column B than column A!

The Jets are the 30th team to depart my search. They are a team I'm fairly ambivalent about, I like Rex Ryan's personality, I think Darelle Revis is the best defensive player in the league but I'm not great fan of Mark Sanchez or Santino Holmes.  The whole Jets sideshow can get a bit grating when it seems to overshadow what's going on between the white lines, having said that it can provide good entertainment when the on field action is distinctly average.

If you've been keeping track, you'll know that my final 2 teams are the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles.  One of those teams will earn my support for life, but in true NFL style, I'll be having a "bye" before the final!  I'll be recapping my entire process so far, talking about how the blog will continue and revealing the way in which the final will be decided.
Hopefully, I should have that up on Tuesday with the "Superbowl" to follow on Thursday night.

Quarter Final Time

Four teams to go. Will I become a fan of the Eagles, the Jets, the Vikings or maybe the Lions. Only 3 eliminations left, starting with my final look at the murky world of NFL statistics.

Throughout my search for a team, I've used a number of statistical comparisons to eliminate teams.  Quarterback ratings, kick success rates, tight end comparisons, 4th down records etc.  As I'm approaching the end of the process, it's time to look back at all the statistics and get rid of a team based on their overall stats in the categories I've used.

To keep things relatively simple, I will rank my 4 remaining teams for each category and give them 4,3,2 or 1 point(s) accordingly, the team with the worst overall score will be eliminated.  Makes sense?  Doesn't matter, it will do as we go on.

Draft Order
My first statistical elimination was based on the 2012 Draft order.  The Colts bit the dust here due to their 2-14 record, but just one game ahead of them were the Vikings, so they scoop just the one point in this category.  One of the great aspects of the NFL is that the worst teams have a chance to improve by having the first pick of new talent in the Draft.  Imagine if Lionel Messi decided he wanted to come to England, instead of Man City dipping into their vast pockets, little old Wigan would get first dips on the Argentine.  Of course the Premier League isn't a franchise so that'll never happen, but in the NFL the system helps maintain parity in the League.

Vikings 1pt  Eagles 2pts  Jets 3pts  Lions 4pts




Quarterback Ratings
Poor Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars bit the dust in this round.  The Quarterback rating is a complicated system but if you look at the ratings for 2011 it does give a good reflection of the order of supremacy in the position.  Few would argue that Messrs Rodgers, Brees and Brady were the top 3 QBs during the regular season, and, sadly for Jacksonville, Mr Gabbert had a shocker of a Rookie season.
When it comes to my 4 teams there are 4 very different QB season to assess.  Firstly, there is the ever improving and almost elite Matthew Stafford of the Lions - Stafford has shown remarkably progression during his 3 years in the league and is the prime reason for Detroit's resurgence.  Then we have Michael Vick of the Eagles, a superstar in 2010, he didn't quite maintain that level in 2011, but he is still an excellent starting QB.  Mark Sanchez continues to polarize fans in New York - one week he's a superstar, the next he's Rex Grossman.  Patience is wearing thin and more and more Jets fans are doubting whether Sanchez can take the Jets to the Superbowl.  Finally, there is young Christian Ponder in Minnesota.  Ponder took over at the Vikings halfway through 2011 and performed moderately, he shows flashes of potential and flashes of inexperience.  It's fair to say that the jury is out on whether Ponder is the long term answer.
all of which means our points for this round are...

Vikings 1pt  Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Lions 4pts




Penalties
It was goodbye to the Raiders when I looked penalties in the NFL.  Penalties are probably my number one bugbear in American Football, they delay the game, stop me going to bed and are often basic errors.  Simply put, the less penalties a team concedes the better.  Not surprisingly it is the Lions who fare badly in this round.  Coach Jim Schwarz has developed a reputation for sometimes over aggressive play, led by the helmet grabbing, arm stamping antics of Ndamukong Suh. So, it's just 1pt for Detroit this time...

Lions 1pt   Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Vikings 4pts




TV Matches
Next up was a look at how many live televised games each team had in 2011.  The Cardinals were the only side to score 0 here and were eliminated accordingly. Top of the shop were the Superbowl winning New York Giants, who had 11 of their 16 regular season games on TV - which I guess shows the people who pick the live games know what they are doing. This category gives us our first tie as the Vikings and Lions both had 5 live games...

Vikings & Lions 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Jets 4pts




Coaching Changes
This saw me get rid of the team who have had the most coaching changes since the last expansion in 2001. Andy Reid scores top marks for the Eagles here, 13 years in the job and still going strong(ish).  Reid is one of only 2 coaches to have been in the job for over ten years.  At the other end of the spectrum are the Raiders who have had 7 coaches in 10 years.  The Lions again score just the 1 point as they have had 5 coaches in that time, whilst the Jets and Vikings score 3 each.


Lions 1pt  Vikings & Jets 3pts  Eagles 4pts




Kickers
The odd men out of the NFL, but still a vital position. I wanted my team to have a kicker I could trust.  A kicker who could land the last minute winner or the tricky 50 yarder into the wind.  I didn't want Graham Gano of the Washington Redskins! Not surprisingly, Nick Folk of the Jets is bottom of my 4 teams.  I never trust Folk with a field goal - he doesn't have a confident air about him and looks a bag of nerves when lining up his kicks. My top kicker is Alex Henery of the Eagles, a rookie with a bright future in Philadelphia.

Jets 1pt  Vikings 2pts  Lions 3pts  Eagles 4pts


Tight Ends
The "in"position in the NFL, Tight Ends are game changers and my teams needs a strong one.  This meant the end for Seattle and their run first offence.  They actually have a very good tight end in Zach Miller, but Pete Carroll's game plan meant Miller had little impact for the Seahawks.  It was similar for Vince Shiancoe of the Vikings, a great player but a poor year in Minnesota meant he struggled to put points on the board.


Vikings 1pt  Lions 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Jets 4pts




Fantasy Points
I'm pretty sure I'll be playing Fantasy Football in 2012 so it'd be great to have a couple of my team's players in my Fantasy squad.  The Denver Broncos lost out here, and it's looking increasingly likely the Vikings are about to go the same way, as they have another bad round.  Detroit came out on top, largely thanks to having 2 Fantasy monsters in Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson

Vikings 1pt  Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Lions 4pts




Back Up Quarterbacks
My final statistical elimination was based on back up Quarterbacks and the need for a team to have a strong one.  Bottom of my 4 man pile are the Eagles and the much maligned Vince Young.  Young has actually been replaced in Philadelphia by Trent Edwards.  Edwards is a safer bet, but doesn't possess the flair of Young or the big play capability.  Top marks go to Shaun Hill - who is a useful weapon for the Lions,not least because of Matt Stafford's worrying penchant for picking up injuries.

Eagles 1pt  Jets 2pts  Vikings 3pts  Lions 4pts


All of which gives us overall scores of :

Vikings 18pts
Jets 23pts
Lions 25pts
Eagles 26pts


For the first time in about 7 rounds, I'm not surprised at the outcome.  The Vikings were always likely to pay for their awful 2011 season at some point, and that time has arrived.  It's remarkable that team with Minnesota's record lasted this far, although I'm sure they will be improved in 2012.  Any team with Adrian Peterson at running back isn't going to struggle for too long.

And then there were three!  Just 2 eliminations remain and next time it's going to be a celebrity special to decide which 2 teams will make it to my Grand Final...

4 and Out

What makes a great coach stand out from a good one?  Sure, they can all make easy decisions  - putting the star player on the field, taking off an injured player etc. But what makes a great coach is the ability to make things happen - the ability to turn a 50:50 scenario into a positive outcome, to win in adverse circumstances and to get the best of players.  It is also the ability to take gambles and make them pay off.  A coach who can take a risk and reap the benefits is a precious commodity.

The Saints grab the ball
(somewhere in that melee)

One of the key moments in the New Orleans Saints victory at SuperBowl XLIV was Thomas Morstead starting the second half with an onside kick.  It was seen as a massive gamble by Coach Sean Peyton - but it wasn't just a case of Peyton throwing caution to the wind and hoping for the best.  The Saints had practiced the "Ambush" play cxtensively in the build up to the game, and when Peyton called it during the half time break, Morstead and the Special Teams unit knew what they had to do.  They even told the referees to look out for the play and made sure the Saints staff were on the side of the field that the kick was heading towards.  All little things to help influence the outcome of the kick.  When you put all the factors together, the onside kick becomes less of a gamble and more of a clever piece of strategy.  Sure enough, the Saints recovered the kick and it was seen as being a big turning point in the match.  Yes, it was a gamble and could have failed, but by planning fully for the gamble, Peyton gave his team the best possible chance of pulling it off.

At the other end of the "coaching gamble" spectrum is poor Mike Smith at Atlanta.  Despite a very good record with the Falcons, Smith is best known for his failure to convert 4th Downs.  Most famously was, coincidentally enough, the 2011 home match with the Saints when instead of punting, he decided to gamble on converting a 4th and 1 from his own 29 yard line during Overtime.  A risky move in anyone's book, and one that failed, leading to the Saints getting the ball and winning the match.  Smith was castigated for the decision, but statistically 74% of 4th and 1 (or less) attempts are successful.  Which suggests that the error wasn't Smith's decision to attempt the 4th down conversion, but the play he called to achieve his aim and/or his players execution of it.  The play was a simple run up the middle of the field, which the Saints defence read and subsequently stopped.  A more creative call could  - and I stress could - have given the Falcons a 1st down and carried on a match winning drive.
Just to add to Smith's woes, the Falcons have failed to convert from similar situations in play off defeats in the last 2 seasons.  Again, it's not a case of Smith making the wrong decision in going for the conversion.  He is just making the wrong play calls.

As it goes, the Falcons have recently been removed from my search for a team.  Which probably saves them from more misery, as my next elimination is going to be the team with the worst 4th down conversion rate in the league in 2011.  I don't want to support a team that can't execute these vital plays or one that makes bad decisions in 4th down situations.  Generally speaking there are 3 circumstances in which a team goes for it on 4th down:

 * The trick play - The element of surprise, a fake field goal or a fake punt.  The opposition are off guard and the kicker can throw a pass or go on a run.  They are also more elaborate versions of this, but however you attempt it, preparation is key to its success.

* Short yardage - "Smith Country", getting the ball a few inches forwards.  Sounds easy but often goes wrong.  Clearly the players need to execute but it's up to the coaches to pick the right play, spot the mismatches and give the players the best chance of success.

Nicks catches the Hail Mary
(somewhere in that melee)

* Desperation - The last second Hail Mary or a hopeful heave down the middle.  Harder to be critical when this fails but there is an art to it and special players/coaches can make it work.  Witness Hakeem Nicks effort against the Packers in the play offs - New York executed the play correctly, Green Bay didn't. (NB - I know this wasn't a 4th down but it was a 4th downesque desperation play)

That's enough conjecture, let's look at the 4th Down success rates of each team in 2011...

Detroit Lions 57%

Philadelphia Eagles 46% 

Minnesota Vikings 38%

New York Jets 36%

Houston Texans 27%

Of the other 27 teams, the Titans came out on top with 10 out of 14 4th down gambles paying off (74%), whilst at number were the Denver Broncos with a pathetic 23%.  The Texans were 30th in the table with just  3 successes from 11 attempts, meaning it is they who bite the dust.

Andre Johnson recreates the first photo!

Wow! I had the Texans down as my favourites to win, not sure why, as the process is very open but I just had a gut feeling Houston would pull through. Shows what I know!  I actually think the Texans are a good tip for the SuperBowl next season.  A fit Schaub, plus Foster and Johnson is a tough match for any defence. Add to that Wade Philips revamped defence and you've got the makings of a powerful outfit in a relatively weak division.

I'm down to my final four, and there are just 3 rounds left.  Which makes the next elimination a Quarter Final of sorts and a good time to take stock and recap on my previous categories...whilst eliminating a team in the process.

The next elimination will be up on Friday this week so check back then to find out who has made my Final 3!

Home Sweet Home

Experts often tell us about the importance of "Home Advantage", but what advantages does being at home give?  It's certainly true that playing in your own stadium is beneficial for most teams.  Currently, in the English Premier League 15 of the 20 teams have won more matches at home than away.  Last season, 47% of matches were won by the home team.  The figures are almost identical in the lower leagues.  It's a similar story in cricket and rugby; home advantage makes a difference.  There are a few possible explanations for this trend:

Crowd support - Thousands of people cheering for you and booing the opposition can only be a good thing.
Conditions - Weather and the playing surface.  Familiarity can be a big advantage.
Travel - Staying at home the night before a game is preferable to a long coach/plane trip.
Officials - Preferential treatment from referees/umpires.

The answer is probably a combination of each, as whilst there are stats that show that home advantage exists, there is no way of accurately quantifying the specific ways in which it exists.

A good reason why I'm not
supporting the Packers

In the NFL, a couple of the above factors would seem to be more significant than in most other sports.  The size of the USA means that teams have to travel massive distances during a season.  In the 2011 season, the San Francisco 49ers racked up a whopping 29,196 miles in order to fulfill their fixtures.  In addition, teams have to contend with wildly disparate weather conditions, ranging from the Arizona dessert to the frozen fields of Green Bay.  Clearly, being used to the conditions and not having to travel is a pretty good advantage to have.

The 12th man. Often better
than the other 11

The crowd  factor is more comparable to other sports, particularly football.  Some teams have famously loud crowds that spur on the home team, put off the away team and influence the officials decisions.  Other teams struggle to fill their stadium and have notoriously apathetic fans.  For a comparison, watch a Seattle home game and a Jacksonville home game back to back.
The overall effect is that home teams won 57.3% of matches last season, so whilst it's not an automatic winning ticket it does help.  The topic of "home field advantage" is a favourite topic for NFL analysts when play-off season comes around, and they are always keen to stress its importance to a team's Superbowl chances.

The NFL schedule (which is far too dull to bother explaining) means teams play at a variety of different locations every season, but the constant factor is that they play 8 home games per year.  As such, I don't want to support a team that doesn't perform in front of their own fans.  I want a team that respond to the crowds cheers, a team that makes the most of the familiar conditions and benefits from the lack of travel.  So, I'm going to eliminate the team with the worst home record of my survivors, and I'm going to base it on the last 3 seasons, giving us have a sample size of 24 matches:

(Figures show the number of home wins)

                                        2011                2010               2009                 Overall


Buffalo                            5                       2                      3                         10
Detroit                            5                       4                      2                         11
Houston                          5                       4                      4                         13
Minnesota                      1                       4                      8                         13
New York                       6                       5                      4                         15
Philadelphia                  3                       4                      6                         13


The dream is over! After clinging on for dear life for weeks, the Buffalo Bills finally bite the bullet.  Perhaps their long stay is down to my lack of stats based eliminations in recent rounds, but I felt such a round was due.  Again, it's not 100% fair, the NFL schedule means that everyone plays a different array of teams each year, so arguably Buffalo had the toughest schedule over the sample period.  Haven't said that, I think it's fair to say that the above table is reflective of each team's ability over the last 3 years.

"Have you got $59m for
a cup of tea"

I am a bit sad to get rid of the Bills, although I never seriously thought they'd win.  Everybody likes an underdog and I'm sure I would have enjoyed supporting the Bills, but in the real world can you honestly see them reaching the playoffs in the next few years?  Honestly?
Perhaps taking the "chosen one" mantle from the Bills, are the Detroit Lions.  Following last week's absurd stay of execution, they survived this week by one victory. What's more, after completing the process, I checked the stats based on doing the elimination over 4 seasons and guess who would have been eliminated?

Which brings us down to just 5 teams and only 4 more eliminations.  I've decided on the 4 methods I'm using, and can honestly say that it's impossible to predict any of the eliminations. I've got 2 stats based and 2 left-field methods - including the winner takes all final!

Next up, I'll be looking at the dilemma that often tells us who the bravest coaches are - "Do we go for it on 4th Down?"

360 Degree Thinking

Amazingly, there are easier ways to find your perfect NFL team.  There was me, thinking that the simplest method was to spend months analyzing numerous categories, looking at lots of different aspects of the sport and eliminating teams one by one.  Then I discover there's a website called nfl-360.com that does it all in the space of a couple of minutes.

NFL-360.com is a great site if you are new to the sport or just want to brush up on the basics.  It's full of information on teams and players, as well as having videos and articles explaining the various positions on the field.  There's nothing too in-depth and if you're an experienced NFL fan you may find it a bit pointless, but for newcomers it's a great "NFL For Dummies" site.  Word of warning, some of the player videos are a bit out of date - Leon Washington at the Jets, Asomugha at the Raiders etc.

The aspect of nfl-360 that is most relevant to this blog is the "Pick a Team" function.  This provides you with 3 ways in which you can pick a team to support.  One of them is an extremely basic game involving you using the space bar to throw a towel in a basket, you are then allocated a random team.  Hmm, I've already done one completely random elimination (the coin toss) so I'm not going to do another one.

The other 2 methods involve answering 6 multiple choice questions and then being allocated a team based on your answers.  One of the roots is a series of sports related questions, the other involves lifestyle choices.  The aim is to find the team that best fits your personality.  Clearly it's not an exact science, but if you want to quickly land a team to follow, there are worse methods out there (I should know, I've used some of them!).  But, I'm not using the nfl-360 process to pick a team...I'm using it to eliminate a team!  I'll complete the surveys until the suggested team is one from my list of remaining franchises.  The questions vary each time you take the test, so I won't just get given the same team every time.  These "out of the blue" eliminations are my favourite as I have no way of making an educated guess as to the outcome, when I find out the winner/loser it's a complete surprise.   Let's begin with the sports questions...

1. Which Gold medal matters most?

One man who can escape from
Revis island

a. 100m  b. 4x100m  c. Long Jump.  Got to be a, it's the one event that everyone watches.

2. You get a free ticket to Wimbledon, who do you watch?
a. Federer  b. Nadal  c. Murray   Nadal annoys me with his time wasting, Fed is past his best so it's got to be the Brit.

3. What's your raquet sport preference?
a. Squash  b. Tennis  c. Table Tennis  I've never played squash, table tennis is fun but tennis wins just because it's better exercise.

4.  What's your favourite extreme sport?
a. Snowboarding  b. Kite Surfing  c. Mountain Biking   Err, none of them but at least I can ride a bike.

5.  Your team scores a Touchdown, what happens?
a.  Scorer shakes hands with teammates and jogs back to the sidelines  b. Scorer leaps over the hoardings and celebrates with the fans  c. Scorer does a dance routine and gets fined.   Boring answer but a is the only one that doesn't incur a fine or penalty! Unless you're at Lambeau.

6.  What is the "money shot" in golf?
a.  The booming fairway drive  b. The long putt  c. The flop shot from an unplayable lie  Got to be c, love it on the rare occasions when I do one of these successfully

I pause before hitting the final answer, this could be my next elimination. I hit enter and "Congratulations, you have picked the New York Giants".  Grr, I got rid of them at the start of February, this could take a while.  Time for some lifestyle questions...

1. What is your favourite thing to eat at a BBQ?
a.  Chicken  b. Ribs  c. Burger    Burger every time, but where's the sausage option!?

2.  You're hungry...
a. Pizza  b. Pasta  c. Steak     All good but if you're asking now then it's c.


3.  Pick a colour
a. Red  b. Blue  c. White    No thinking time, blue.

4.  Favourite Britpop band?
a. Blur  b. Pulp  c. Oasis  Liked them all but for longevity alone it's got to be a.

5.  Your mobile phones is...
a. PAYG  b. Monthly contract  c. Lost  

6.  The music CD is...
a. Awesome  b. Obsolete  c. Expensive   hmm, it's 2012 so got to be b

Again, I pause before hitting enter...the Cleveland Browns.  Man alive, I may have to cancel my evening plans.  Back to the 1st option and let's hope for some different questions! As it turns out I get 4 new questions:

Which of these would you rather be?
a. Wide Receiver  b. Running Back  c. Quarterback  


What's your sports superstition?
a. Socks on a specific order  b. Don't have one  c. Same breakfast on match days.  a, this extends to pads when I play cricket!

Who earns you respect in the Tour de France
a. Yellow jersey  b. Green Jersey  c. King of the Mountains   a - he is the winner after all, until he fails the drugs test.

You are a World Class footballer, are you...
a. Box to Box Midfielder  b. Goal poacher  c. Flamboyant wide player   c, which is ironic to anyone who's ever seen me play.

Time to see my destiny...the sodding Giants again.  Time for a coffee and some more lifestyle options!

Time to pay, do you use...
a. Cash  b. Credit Card  c. Debit Card  

The best drama on TV is...
a.  The Wire  b. Sopranos  c. The Bill   a, fo sho

The answer is...
a. 42  b. None of your business  c. On the tip of my tongue  a, hate sci-fi but have a soft spot for Hitchhikers Guide.

Verdict number 4 is...the Cardinals.  Getting annoyed now.

Matty Ice - He freezes in
January

Anyway, you get the gist, I keep finding another couple of new questions but keep getting given irrelevant teams, this pattern continues for lots more attempts, 3 cups of coffee and numerous shakes of the head.  The only thinking keeping me from giving up is the fact that I keep getting new teams, so it stands to reason that I must eventually get a hit.  Finally I do! After around 20 attempts I find my next elimination...the Atlanta Falcons.

Well, that wins the prize for the most frustrating elimination of them all!  It marked the first time I've come close to abandoning the method and picking something different.  But I stuck with it and finally got myself an elimination.
Big shame to lose the Falcons as I'd expected them to be in for the long haul.  They're a strong outfit and have had some good seasons of late without managing to make the big leap and becoming a Superbowl team.  All of a sudden, I'm down to just 6 teams:

Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.


Which means, I'm getting near the end of the process and my attention has turned to how I can carry on the Blog after finding my team.  I don't want to turn it into a team specific blog, as that will inevitably turn off a lot of people, besides there are some great team sites out there anyway.  Instead, I want to look at various aspects of the NFL and what they mean for supporters.  Some of these will be timely - such as Free Agency, the Draft and Training Camps, whilst others will be broader such as fan culture, rivalries and positions.  I'll also look at player positions, styles of play and predication for the new season.  Then when Week ! comes around I'll be all set to follow my team's Superbowl run. (Note to self - Edit this if Buffalo win)
Obviously, I will have a team to support so the blogs will have some references to this but I'll endevour to keep it in a similar style to my current efforts.

But first I need to find a team!

Location, Location, Elimination

Contrary to my last article, I don't want to go to an NFL fixture purely for the match-up.  I want to spend a few days in the city and make the experience a memorable holiday.  In the past, I have visited fantastic cities when attending football matches - Lisbon, Porto, Dortmund, Braga...all beautiful places and the experience of being in these locations is sometimes more memorable than the actual match.  I don't want to go to an NFL match and want to go home straight after the game - for a start, it's a bloody long way to go for a quick visit!  What's  more, any mention of a holiday and my other half will be making sure she's on the flight.  So, once again I'm going to put the elimination into her capable hands and asking her which of the 8 remaining NFL locations she would least like to visit for a holiday.

If it was up to me and I had all 32 teams to pick from then it'd spell the end for Green Bay.  Green Bay is comfortably the smallest NFL location with a population of just over 100,000.  The main tourist attraction in Green Bay is the national Railroad Museum and the average temperature is sub zero for the second half of the NFL season.  So, if looking at train tracks and freezing your arse off is your kind of thing then I'd recommend Green Bay for a visit.  However, this isn't up to me...

This immediately means good news for the Jets as her first response is that she wants to go New York.  The other 7 entrants receive a lot of attention and plenty of research.  An hour or so later, I'm informed that it's going to come down to 3 teams:  Buffalo, Carolina and Detroit.

Buffalo; as it just looks very dull.  She likened it to a trip to Gillingham, which is extremely harsh on Buffalo. But I took her point that there didn't appear to be much to do there.

Charlotte, North Carolina wasn't getting rave reviews on travel websites.  The most exciting things to do there appear to be eating chicken or eating BBQ chicken at a drive through.  I like chicken, but I would like more to do on a holiday.

Downtown Detroit - Beautiful

Then we come to Detroit, to quote a Lonely Planet review - "Tell any American you’re planning to visit Detroit, then watch their eyebrows shoot up quizzically. ‘Why?’ they’ll ask, and warn you about the off-the-chart homicide rates, boarded-up buildings with trash swirling at their bases, and plummeting population (down from 1.8 million in 1950 to 886,000 today).  Detroit’s a crap-hole. You’ll get killed there"


This appears to spell the end for the Lions, but I complete the formalities and ask her who she is eliminating.

The answer?  The Carolina Panthers. 
"Surely you mean Detroit"
"Being shot in Detroit ain't good, but it sounds more exciting than Charlotte"

And there we have female logic in a nutshell, she'd rather run the risk of death if the alternative was eating chicken for a few days. I'll hold my hands up and accept full responsibility for this elimination.  My decision to place it in her hands and my fault if I end up with the Lions and have to spend a holiday in Detroit.

The future looks bright for
the Panthers

Which means I'm losing the Panthers, which is a bit of a wounder.  I can see big things in store for Carolina in the next few years. Cam Newton is the real deal and, ironically, I think they will see a similar upturn in fortunes as that seen by the Lions in recent times.

I'm down to just 7 teams now and there are just 6 more eliminations to go.  Next time, I'll be looking at an alternative method of picking a team - the nfl360 website - and I'll be explaining how the blog will continue after I've found my team...

Can't Get There From Here

Apologies for the almost complete lack of football related content in this article! 


I live in the UK, have a job, am not ridiculously rich and do not have a pilot's licence.  As such, it seems unlikely I'll be travelling to watch my NFL team play very often.  But I do intend to watch them at least once in my lifetime, and seeing as I can't guarantee they will be playing in the International Series, I would need to hop on a plane to fulfil my desire.

Misery

Travelling to sports events can be a fraught process.  Traffic jams, delayed trains, missed connections, discomfort and sky high prices are all part of going to modern sporting events.  I can lay claim to some truly horrendous experiences when travelling to and from fixtures.  Just this season, I spent 8 hours on the M25 in a failed bid to attend Gillingham first home game of the season.  An experience that still brings me out in a shiver whenever I drive round the godforsaken road.

In 2004, a friend and I decided that the best way to get to Portugal for the Euros was by Inter-railing.  We were wrong.  Sleepless nights, encounters with lunatics, bad hygiene, too much time stuck in Paris (the worlds most overrated city!) and malnutrition ensued.  Capped off by a delightful night near the Spanish border with a group of Croatian alcoholics, who rounded off an all night session with some Stella at 7am in Marseilles train station and my friend being written a love poem by a transsexual.  We spent the final night of the trip, watching a bloke abseil off the Eiffel Tower with the Olympic flame and a load of disgruntled French fans beat up some Greeks because their team had the audacity to beat France.  Although, it has to be said that Portugal was wonderful and I can highly recommend a trip to Porto, Lisbon and Braga.  Beautiful cities and fantastic stadiums.  Just don't inter-rail your way there!
Needless to say, we got the plane for the 2006 World Cup.

Therefore I don't want days of misery when I get round to watching my NFL team play live.  A nice easy flight will do me just fine.  So, for this elimination I will be looking at how quickly I can get to each of my remaining teams stadiums and getting rid of the one that takes the longest.  In the interests of fairness I will driving to the UK airport that takes me to the relevant city and getting a hire car when I arrive at the destination.  I will be travelling to watch Week 1 of the 2012 season. I am assuming that my time spent at each airport will be equal.  And I will be drinking a bottle of Rjoca while I carry out the exercise!

I do realise that in reality, I will be making my visit more of a holiday than just jumping off the plane and going straight to the game, but I'll cover off that part of the process in the next elimination.  Time to open the wine and plan my journeys...

1. Atlanta - I can get a direct flight from Manchester airport (89 Minutes away) that takes 9 hours 10 minutes.  Upon arrival it takes 15 minutes to drive to the Georgia Dome.  Total time = 10hrs 56mins


2. Buffalo - A flight from Heathrow (111 mins) to Buffalo Niagara Airport takes a whopping 10 hours 58 Minutes (including a stop), then it's 19 minutes to drive to the stadium.  Total Time = 13 hours 8 minutes.


3. Carolina - Again I can go from Manchester (89 mins) but this time it requires a change at Philly meaning the journey takes 11 hours 10 minutes plus another 14 mins by car.  Total Time = 12hrs 54mins


4. Detroit - I can fly direct from Heathrow (1hr 51 mins) to Detroit in 8hrs 25mins. Add 28 mins to get to the stadium and it's 10hrs 54mins in total.


5. Houston - Heathrow again, this time for a 10 hr flight and a 22min drive.  Total Time - 12hrs 11mins


6. Minnesota - 111 minutes to Heathrow. 9 hr flight to Minneapolis then just 17 mins of driving. Total Time -  11hrs 8mins


7. New York Jets - Direct flight from Birmingham to Newark is 7hrs 55 mins and then it's 22 mins by car.  Total Time - 8hrs 34mins


8. Philadelphia - Back to Manchester (89 mins) for a direct flight taking 7hrs 50mins followed by a mere 11 mins by car.  Total Time - 9hrs 30mins


9. Tennessee - Again it's Manchester for my flight (89 mins), this time stopping in Chicago, making it a trip of 11hours 45mins plus a 14 minute drive. Total Time - 13hrs 28mins.

Chris Johnson 2011 - the poor
man's Chris Johnson 2010

Anybody still awake?  If so you may have noticed that I'm saying goodbye to the Tennessee Titans!  It was a close run thing and only a last minute double check for London flights saved the Bills.  Perhaps another sign that Buffalo have their name on the trophy, so to speak.

Just one round after claiming their first victory, the Titans are sent packing.  Finishing 9th seems about right for them - a bit better than average but never really threatening.

Down to 8 and just Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, New York Jets, Buffalo, Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia remain.

Next up, I'll be employing my girlfriend for the 3rd and final time.  This time to pick the destination she would least like to spend a few days in....

Strength in Depth

Team sports aren't really team sports anymore.  You don't win titles simply by having the best team.  In modern sport, you need to have the best squad.  Gone are days when a team can win a league title using only 14 players - as Aston Villa did in 1980.  It's not necessarily the side with the best 11 players that wins the league, but it will be the one with the best 20+ players.
Modern sport is faster and more physically demanding and its participant are more susceptible to injury, fatigue or lose of form.  Not to mention the possibility of missing matches due to racial abuse, deliberately bowling no balls or concealing a blood capsule in your mouth!  Luckily, there is a lot more money in sport, so it's easier to build a squad and have strength in depth.

This probably doesn't end well

In the NFL, injuries are commonplace.  You can wear protection from head to toe, but if a 20 stone man slams into you it's going to hurt.  Concussions, fractures and breaks are part and parcel of NFL life.  Rule changes have helped and players have a lot more protection from officials, but there are still a high amount of injuries.  Not surprisingly, Quarterbacks are the victims of a lot of the big hits in the NFL.  As I discussed in a previous article, quarterback is king in the NFL.  Take out the quarterback and you are putting the opposition at a great disadvantage.

In the 2011 season, 13 teams finished the season with a different QB to the one they started it with.  Of these teams, only Denver & Jacksonville didn't suffer a serious injury at the position.  In addition Pittsburgh, Philidelphia, Tampa Bay and Seattle had injury problems at QB.  That's over half of the NFL teams that required their back up Quarterback to play during the season.  Some teams manged to absorb the injury - TJ Yates at Houston (who was actually the 3rd choice!) proved to be a capable game manager and even helped the team to a play off victory, John Skelton had a better record at Arizona than 1st choice Kevin Kolb, whilst Matt Moore did an excellent job replacing Chad Henne in Miami.

It was a very different story at a lot of other franchises.  Chicago collapsed in a heap after Caleb Hanie had to replace Jay Cutler halfway through the season, Kansas fans had to witness some bloke called Tyler Palko throw the ball wildly for a few weeks and far too many column inches have been devoted to the problems in Indianapolis for me to be able to add anything new.

Back up quarterbacks are usually either veterans who can use their experience to handle game time at short notice or inexperienced young players learning their trade.  Some players make great back ups, some are terrible and some are still unknown quantities.  Whoever your team has in the position, one thing is certain, if you haven't got a capable replacement QB, your team's season is a torn muscle away from an early ending.  That's why I don't want to support a team with a sub standard Quarterback.

So for this elimination, I'm going to look at the ten back up QBs at the remaining teams and eliminate the one with the lowest career QB rating.  Again, it might not be entirely fair - some QBs are improving, some are regressing, some teams will have different players in place before the 2012 season kicks off.  That's not to mention the previously documented flaws with the QB rating system.  However, seeing as my crystal ball still hasn't been delivered I'm going to have to go with what we know.

For the purposes of this elimination, I will be using the player ranked at Number 2 in their Teams depth chart  prior to Free Agency and their QB rating as per nfl.com.  Here are the results...

Jake Locker - Thrilled to be
in the NFL

Atlanta Falcons :                Chris Redman 79.4
Buffalo Bills:                       Tyler Thigpen   72.5
Carolina Panthers:            Derek Anderson 68.8
Cincinnati Bengals:           Bruce Gradkowski 65.8
Detroit Lions:                    Shaun Hill 84.7
Houston Texans:               Matt Leinart 71.6
Minnesota Vikings            Joe Webb 66.6
New York Jets                  Mark Brunell 84.0
Philadelphia Eagles         Vince Young 74.4
Tennessee Titans              Jake Locker 99.4

So by a whisker, I'm going to eliminate the Cincinnati Bengals. Which comes as a bit of a surprise. Before going through the teams my money was firmly on either Redman, Anderson or Webb coming bottom. Shows what I know!  Jake Locker came out on top, giving the Titans their first category victory and showing that they could be a bit of a QB controversy between him and Matt Hasselbeck this season.  Locker showed plenty of promise in his rookie season and may prove to be a great example of how being a back up can be beneficial to your career development.

Every team I lose now is a bit of a disappointment as I'd be happy to support any of them, but the Bengals were a team I expected to last the distance. Upwardly mobile with a bright young team.  On the plus side, we won't have to see this monstrosity again....

Fenton.......FENTON!!!

Nest time will be the first of 2 Geography based eliminations.  Only 8 more teams to go.......

Listen to your Heart

This feels like an important elimination. The survivors will form my Top Ten.  A landmark in my search and, as such, I'm going to use an all together different method.  No stats, no external help...I'm just going to look at each team and deciding which one I can not realistically see myself supporting.

"Planning can only take you so far, sometimes you have to take a leap of faith" (which TV show?)

This will be the first time since my initial elimination of the Steelers that I will be deciding which team to eliminate.  I feel like Alan Sugar eyeing up the candidates in the boardroom or Simon Cowell sitting in his Barbados villa, listening to some tone deaf loon trying to sing.

So, in no particular order the candidates are:

"Get Ragnar off the roof!"

Minnesota Vikings - Surprising they've lasted this far.  On the one hand they've got the top Running Back in football, an excellent Receiver in Percy Harvin and last season's sack leader in Jared Allen.  Add to that a promising young quarterback and you've got the makings of a good team to support.  Then you see that they the only won 3 games in 2011 and can't help thinking that there are a lot of weak points outweighing the positives.
The question is - can I see myself supporting the Vikings?

No caption required

Cincinnati Bengals - A team on the up. Good young Quarterback, excellent young receiver and a solid defence. The future looks positive for the Bengals.  However, they are in a very tough division with the Ravens and Steelers, plus Who Dey is an awful mascot and I'm not a fan of their kit!  The Bengals are known for being a bit of a "snake bitten" franchise and don't have the most glittering recent history.
However, They can lay claim to the moment of the 2011 season!

Atlanta Falcons - The safe choice.  The Falcons are good in most areas, without being able to find the extra spark needed to win in the playoffs. It's unlikely that supporting the Falcons would lead to years of misery, but equally would it lead to Superbowl's and excitement? Maybe they are just a bit drab.  If this was a box ticking exercise then the Falcons would be in the Top Ten, but this is about my instincts and who I can see myself supporting.

Is he cool?

Green Bay Packers - See above.  Best QB in the game - check, strong support in the UK - check, likely to be contenders in 2012 - check.  It all looks good for Green Bay. But there's something bugging me about them.  Is it the Lambeau Leap?  Is it the fact I'd be labelled a glory hunter?  Or is it just because their fans wear cheese on their heads?

Are Buffalo's hopes resting
on this chin?

Buffalo Bills - The Jedward of the contest.  Nobody knows how they got here but they are still going.  They turn up to each round and perform badly but still manage to get through.  Maybe they are destined to win.  The team have been poor for years now, but remember back to October - the Bills were a threat and people were talking about the playoffs so maybe there is some potential there.  Admittedly, things went a bit pear shaped in the second half of the season, but hey, their Quarterback has a great beard!




Carolina Panthers - Another team on the up. Although seeing as they were the worst team in 2010, it was fairly inevitable.  Nonetheless, 2011 saw the Panthers improve immeasurably, largely thanks to the remarkable performance of rookie QB Cam Newton.  Newton broke numerous records and if I support the Panthers I'd be safe in the knowledge that the team had a leader for the next ten years. Having said that, they do have a remarkable ability to toss away leads and concede an alarming number of points.  Do I want to spend my Sunday evenings screaming at my laptop in annoyance?

Colin

Detroit Lions - Detroit are a couple of years ahead of Carolina in terms of upward progress.  0-16 in 2008 has been the catalyst for an impressive rebuilding operation. They've got a great quarterback for years to come and arguably the most unplayable receiver in the game.  But, again like Carolina, they do concede an awful lot of points.  Plus, I find their coach Jim Schwarz highly annoying and the nearest the NFL has to Neil Warnock.

Houston Texans - Great 2011 and had they not lost 2 quarterbacks they may have gone all the way.  The Schaub-Foster-Johnson triumvirate is one of the most solid in the league and their defence improved greatly under Wade Philips.  They also have the advantage of playing in a relatively weak division.  However, without wanting to sound like a Liverpool fan, they've got no history!

Smile and the world smiles
with you

Philadelphia Eagles - If this was played on paper (as opposed at a laptop!), then the Eagles would be in the Top Ten no problems. A star studded team that under-performed in 2011, the Eagles will once again be strongly fancied this season.  Any team with Vick, McCoy, Jackson (maybe) et al is bound to have a chance but will they flatter to deceive once again.  Coach Andy Reid isn't a man you'd want to sit next to on the train - and that's not just because of his girth.



Tennessee Titans - The dark horses. Seems like they get the least amount of media exposure in the UK, they are average in most position, but they do seem to get results.  Admittedly not quite enough to make the play offs or threaten the top teams, but Tennessee are a solid team.  However, it all seems a bit 5/10 across the board.  Star running back Chris Johnson is the main attraction, but he had a very mediocre 2011.  I'm just not sure whether the Titans have enough to make me want to support them.

Rex spots something he likes

New York Jets - If the Titans are the dark horses, then the Jets are very pale donkeys.  Lots of media coverage, always in the news, but quite often for the wrong reasons in recent times.  Coach with foot fetish, "captain" who quits on the team, average quarterback with a pop star ego.  But, the Jets did reach the Championship game in both 09 and 10, so they are clearly doing something right.

Hmm, this is difficult, I have renewed appreciation for Sir Alan and the Dark Lord Cowell.  I've spent ages thinking about my decision and I've weighed up every teams' pros and cons.  Do I get rid of a "safe" option, do I get rid of a team that concede too much or should I try to avoid supporting a really bad team?

In the end, I've decided to just listen to my heart and having carefully considered the evidence, there is one team that I just cannot see myself supporting.

Next time, I'll be starting the Top Ten with a look at back up Quarterbacks and what they mean for my remaining teams in 2012.


Oh, who have I got rid of? The Green Bay Packers. No explanation needed, it just feels right to eliminate them at this stage.