Throughout my search for a team, I've used a number of statistical comparisons to eliminate teams. Quarterback ratings, kick success rates, tight end comparisons, 4th down records etc. As I'm approaching the end of the process, it's time to look back at all the statistics and get rid of a team based on their overall stats in the categories I've used.
To keep things relatively simple, I will rank my 4 remaining teams for each category and give them 4,3,2 or 1 point(s) accordingly, the team with the worst overall score will be eliminated. Makes sense? Doesn't matter, it will do as we go on.
Draft Order
My first statistical elimination was based on the 2012 Draft order. The Colts bit the dust here due to their 2-14 record, but just one game ahead of them were the Vikings, so they scoop just the one point in this category. One of the great aspects of the NFL is that the worst teams have a chance to improve by having the first pick of new talent in the Draft. Imagine if Lionel Messi decided he wanted to come to England, instead of Man City dipping into their vast pockets, little old Wigan would get first dips on the Argentine. Of course the Premier League isn't a franchise so that'll never happen, but in the NFL the system helps maintain parity in the League.
Vikings 1pt Eagles 2pts Jets 3pts Lions 4pts
Quarterback Ratings
Poor Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars bit the dust in this round. The Quarterback rating is a complicated system but if you look at the ratings for 2011 it does give a good reflection of the order of supremacy in the position. Few would argue that Messrs Rodgers, Brees and Brady were the top 3 QBs during the regular season, and, sadly for Jacksonville, Mr Gabbert had a shocker of a Rookie season.
When it comes to my 4 teams there are 4 very different QB season to assess. Firstly, there is the ever improving and almost elite Matthew Stafford of the Lions - Stafford has shown remarkably progression during his 3 years in the league and is the prime reason for Detroit's resurgence. Then we have Michael Vick of the Eagles, a superstar in 2010, he didn't quite maintain that level in 2011, but he is still an excellent starting QB. Mark Sanchez continues to polarize fans in New York - one week he's a superstar, the next he's Rex Grossman. Patience is wearing thin and more and more Jets fans are doubting whether Sanchez can take the Jets to the Superbowl. Finally, there is young Christian Ponder in Minnesota. Ponder took over at the Vikings halfway through 2011 and performed moderately, he shows flashes of potential and flashes of inexperience. It's fair to say that the jury is out on whether Ponder is the long term answer.
all of which means our points for this round are...
Vikings 1pt Jets 2pts Eagles 3pts Lions 4pts
Penalties
It was goodbye to the Raiders when I looked penalties in the NFL. Penalties are probably my number one bugbear in American Football, they delay the game, stop me going to bed and are often basic errors. Simply put, the less penalties a team concedes the better. Not surprisingly it is the Lions who fare badly in this round. Coach Jim Schwarz has developed a reputation for sometimes over aggressive play, led by the helmet grabbing, arm stamping antics of Ndamukong Suh. So, it's just 1pt for Detroit this time...
Lions 1pt Jets 2pts Eagles 3pts Vikings 4pts
TV Matches
Next up was a look at how many live televised games each team had in 2011. The Cardinals were the only side to score 0 here and were eliminated accordingly. Top of the shop were the Superbowl winning New York Giants, who had 11 of their 16 regular season games on TV - which I guess shows the people who pick the live games know what they are doing. This category gives us our first tie as the Vikings and Lions both had 5 live games...
Vikings & Lions 2pts Eagles 3pts Jets 4pts
Coaching Changes
This saw me get rid of the team who have had the most coaching changes since the last expansion in 2001. Andy Reid scores top marks for the Eagles here, 13 years in the job and still going strong(ish). Reid is one of only 2 coaches to have been in the job for over ten years. At the other end of the spectrum are the Raiders who have had 7 coaches in 10 years. The Lions again score just the 1 point as they have had 5 coaches in that time, whilst the Jets and Vikings score 3 each.
Lions 1pt Vikings & Jets 3pts Eagles 4pts
Kickers
The odd men out of the NFL, but still a vital position. I wanted my team to have a kicker I could trust. A kicker who could land the last minute winner or the tricky 50 yarder into the wind. I didn't want Graham Gano of the Washington Redskins! Not surprisingly, Nick Folk of the Jets is bottom of my 4 teams. I never trust Folk with a field goal - he doesn't have a confident air about him and looks a bag of nerves when lining up his kicks. My top kicker is Alex Henery of the Eagles, a rookie with a bright future in Philadelphia.
Jets 1pt Vikings 2pts Lions 3pts Eagles 4pts
Tight Ends
The "in"position in the NFL, Tight Ends are game changers and my teams needs a strong one. This meant the end for Seattle and their run first offence. They actually have a very good tight end in Zach Miller, but Pete Carroll's game plan meant Miller had little impact for the Seahawks. It was similar for Vince Shiancoe of the Vikings, a great player but a poor year in Minnesota meant he struggled to put points on the board.
Vikings 1pt Lions 2pts Eagles 3pts Jets 4pts
Fantasy Points
I'm pretty sure I'll be playing Fantasy Football in 2012 so it'd be great to have a couple of my team's players in my Fantasy squad. The Denver Broncos lost out here, and it's looking increasingly likely the Vikings are about to go the same way, as they have another bad round. Detroit came out on top, largely thanks to having 2 Fantasy monsters in Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson
Vikings 1pt Jets 2pts Eagles 3pts Lions 4pts
Back Up Quarterbacks
My final statistical elimination was based on back up Quarterbacks and the need for a team to have a strong one. Bottom of my 4 man pile are the Eagles and the much maligned Vince Young. Young has actually been replaced in Philadelphia by Trent Edwards. Edwards is a safer bet, but doesn't possess the flair of Young or the big play capability. Top marks go to Shaun Hill - who is a useful weapon for the Lions,not least because of Matt Stafford's worrying penchant for picking up injuries.
Eagles 1pt Jets 2pts Vikings 3pts Lions 4pts
All of which gives us overall scores of :
Vikings 18pts
Jets 23ptsLions 25pts
Eagles 26pts
For the first time in about 7 rounds, I'm not surprised at the outcome. The Vikings were always likely to pay for their awful 2011 season at some point, and that time has arrived. It's remarkable that team with Minnesota's record lasted this far, although I'm sure they will be improved in 2012. Any team with Adrian Peterson at running back isn't going to struggle for too long.
And then there were three! Just 2 eliminations remain and next time it's going to be a celebrity special to decide which 2 teams will make it to my Grand Final...
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