32 to 1

It's about time to tick off another of my "30 Things To Do", and what better way to do it then by talking about another aspect of the NFL that helps make it such a great League. I'm talking about parity, and how that's reflected in the betting markets for the upcoming season.  I'll also be making my selections for the season and placing a few quid on the Eagles winning the SuperBowl.  Feel free to mock, but when.....oh who am I kidding?

A look at the betting for the English Premier League shows that the 2 Manchester clubs are short odds favourites, with Chelsea (5-1) and Arsenal (11-1).  Then there's a big gap to Spurs and Liverpool at 25-1 and a monstrous gap to 7th favourites Newcastle at 175-1.  As for the rest, well let's just say that there's more chance of Bono becoming the next Pope!  Actually scratch that, Mr Hewson is currently 1000-1 to succeed Benedict XVI, which is the same odds as Aston Villa and Stoke have of Premier League glory, and they are only halfway down the betting list!  Teams such as Wigan and Southampton are as long as 5000-1 to win!  You get the idea, essentially around 75% of the league are playing for minor places and avoiding relegation.  I can understand how that's fun for a newly promoted team - Swansea fans will have had a great time last season, but it must be getting a bit dull for the likes of Everton, Stoke and Aston Villa.

It's not just the English Premier League that has this problem, it's a similar story in Spain, Italy, Portugal and other European leagues, whilst in Scotland the engraver has already etched in the name on the 2012-13 league trophy (No, not Falkirk!).

Meanwhile, in the NFL the joint favourites for the Superbowl next season are the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers who are both 13-2.  Behind them there are 11 more teams ranked at 20-1 or shorter.  Yes, there are a few also rans - 5 teams are 100 or 150-1, but even those teams won't have given up hope of at least making the play offs...well OK maybe the Browns have.

Pretty much every NFL fan will go into the season thinking their teams has a chance, and that's a great thing. Looking at the 16 fixtures for Week 1 of the season, it's very hard to pick a winner in all bar 3 of them.  I've previously discussed the reasons for this parity - Salary Caps, the Draft, the Schedule etc - and it's clear that the NFL is structured to give everyone a chance.

This doesn't help me much when it comes to placing wagers for the new season.  I'm committed to betting on the Eagles so get £10 of my money.  Although if I'm being honest I don't think the odds of 12-1 are particularly appealing.  As for other bets, here are my tips for the 2012 NFL season...

SuperBowl Winners
I've been saying all year that the Bears were a good bet for glory and I'm not going to change now.  They've actually drifted in from 25 to 20-1 but I still think this is good EW value. Forte, Cutler, Marshall is a formidable offensive trio.
If you're looking for an outsider, then the Titans at 50-1 could have some merit. They've got a relatively easy Division this season, only just missed out last year and once you're in the play off anything can happen.

Regular Season MVP
The bookies seem convinced it will be a QB and I agree with them. Rodgers, Brees and Brady are the obvious favourites and I think Aaron Rodgers will take some beating in this category, but at 11-2 he's not great value.
Looking a bit further down the list, I like the look of Cam Newton at 33-1.  Yes, he might have a 2nd year slump, but if he doesn't and if he continues his current rate of progress he'll be virtually unplayable.  If the Panthers are play off contenders then Newton could well be in the MVP running

Most Receiving Yards
This is a non event as far as the bookies are concerned. Calvin Johnson is a very short 3-1 to win this, whilst his namesake Andre is a distant second at 17-2.  Given the regularity of injuries in the NFL, I think 3-1 is far too short to be of interest.  Johnson (C) may well scoop the honours, but at 3-1 he's not going to make me rich!
A better value EW bet may be Miles Austin at 25-1.  He's  a regular downfield receiver and should be Tony Romo's number one target, especially given Dez Bryant's off field problems.  Overall though, this is probably a category best left alone.

Most Passing Yards
A similar race to the MVP one, but this way have a couple of additional contenders.  I can see Matt Stafford  putting up huge numbers again in Detroit. He's relatively short at 7-1 but I definitely think he'll be in the top 3.
It's tough to look past the usual suspects in this section, perhaps Matt Schaub at 16-1 could be a reasonable outside dabble, but it's tough to find much value here.

Most Rushing Yards
Finally a decent Eagles bet, at 10-1 LeSean McCoy is excellent value for this category.  He's rate of improvement is superb and he will be playing behind a strong O line and a (hopefully) more mature, less flamboyant QB.
Further down the list, injuries have seen Adrian Peterson drift out to 20-1, but if the Vikings star starts the season fit, he could be a major threat.  I can also see Fred Jackson (25-1) having a very strong season.


There we have it then, a quick guide on how to lose some money!  I accept no responsibly for any debt incurred and I would encourage you not to visit any "pay day lenders" to fund your bets!

I'm off to the Olympics next week, so I may throw in a report of how that goes.  It'll be the only chance I'll ever get to write a blog on Amateur Boxing and Hockey.
My next NFL piece, will be a look ahead to the preseason matches and why I'm not a fan of preseason matches!

An NFL Game in 1000 (ish) Words

If you've never got into the NFL, then chances are it's because the whole spectacle looks confusing, protracted and full of delays.  I'm here to try and banish those fears and tell you how an NFL game works.  Yes, there are plenty of rules, but many of them can be picked up once you've got into the sport.  Initially, you just need to know how a game works.  To prevent myself banging on about the game, I've limited myself to around 1000 words, so hopefully after that you should have a basic understanding of how the sport works.  If you're an NFL fan reading this, then it'd be great if you could forward/send this on to some non fans.  Anyway, here goes...

An NFL pitch is 100 yards long with "Endzones" at either end of the pitch.  At the back of the Endzone there are rugby style goalposts.  A match lasts for one hour and is broken into 4 15 minute quarters
At any one time, one side has the ball (the Offense) and has 4 attempts (Downs - we'll get to that in a bit) to move the ball forward 10 yards or more.  If they fail to do so, they lose possession of the ball.  Ultimately, they are trying to get the ball into the opposition Endzone. 
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The aim of the game is to score more points than the opposition.  There are 3 ways of scoring:
Touchdown - This involves a player having control of the ball in the opposition Endzone. 6 Points.
Point After Touchdown - After scoring a Touchdown, the scoring team can attempt a short kick in order to gain an extra point.
Field Goal - If the Offense fell that they are unable to get into the Endzone (due to either time  constraints or being on 4th Down), they can attempt a Field Goal.  This involves the team's place kicker attempting to kick the ball through the posts and earns the team 3 points.


So what are "Downs"?  

The 2 Lines at the start of a play

At each Down, the ball is placed on the ground, in the middle of the field between the 2 teams. Both teams must be between the ball and their own Endzone when each play begins.  An offensive player (the Centre) passes the ball back between his legs to the Quarterback. The Quarterback will then either attempt to throw the ball to a colleague or hand it off to a colleague. The aim is to advance the ball down the field. The plays ends when either a player in possession is tackled to the ground (IE their knee hits the ground), the ball goes out of play, or a pass hits the ground.  In the latter 2 cases, the clock stops at this point, in the first instance the clock continues.  In either case, the Offense has 40 seconds to make their next play.  Additionally, each team has 3 Timeouts they can take when they wish to stop the clock, and they have 3 "challenges" they can use to get the referee to look at a previous decision in the hope of overturning it.  Similarly to the appeals process in Tennis - if you're wrong you lose a challenge.


The next play starts in the middle of the field, at the point where the Offensive player is taken to ground and pushed out of play.  If the previous play ends via a pass going to ground then the next play starts in the same place as the previous one. 
If the ball ends up with the opposition - either via them catching an attempted pass or recovering a fumbled ball - then they become the Offence and the play ends when the ball carrier is tackles to the ground or goes out of play.  This is known as a Turnover.
As previously mentioned, the Offense has 4 plays in which to move the ball 10+ yards forward.  If they succeed in that aim, then they receive a fresh set of 4 Downs. You've probably heard the phrase "1st and 10", this means that the Offence has a First Down.  Similarly, "2nd and 7" means it's second down and the Offense has 7 yards to go in order to get a fresh set of Downs.


What's everyone's role in this?

A typical line up - The Offence are in blue.

   


Both teams can have 11 players on the field at any time. And you can change your lineup after every play, depending on what you plan to do with the next play.  Typically, the Offence will line up with 5 players in the Offensive Line (including the Centre), their job is to stop the Defence from getting to the Quarterback or Runner.  They can do this by blocking them and pushing them. 


Behind the line, is the Quarterback. He's effectively the on field manager and he dictates the play.  The other 5 Offensive players are usually a combination of the following roles:


Running Back (RB) - The QB hands the ball off to the RB and he tries to run through the opposition Defence. They can also help with blocking the QB. The best RBs are fast, strong and agile.  Some can also double up as Receivers (see a bit later!)


Full Back (FB) - A bigger version of the RB. His primary role is to protect the QB, but he is also useful in short yardage situations.  Eg the team only need to gain 1 yard or so. Being a big unit, he can often rumble forward enough to gain the required amount.


Wide Receivers (WR) - If the QB opts to throw the ball, he is aiming for one of these. Their job is to get themselves into a position where the QB can throw the ball to them successfully. Upon receiving the ball they can run with it until tackled or forced out of play.


Tight Ends (TE) - A hybrid of a WR and an Offensive Line player. They sometimes block, but can also move downfield and receive the ball.  The best TEs resemble bulked up basketball players!


The Defence can line up in a variety of formations but the principle roles are:


Defensive Line - These players line up opposite the Offensive line and their job is to try and break through that line and get to the ball carrier - be it the QB or a RB - and tackle them to the ground. If they can make that tackle behind the line of scrimmage then the Offence will lose yardage.  Eg if it's 1st and 10 and the QB is tackled 4 yards behind the line then the next play is 2nd and 14.


Linebackers - These players line up behind the Defensive line and can either perform the same role as the line (but from deeper and with more potential for a surprise attack) or look to cover receivers and intercept the ball.


Cornerbacks - They mark the WR's, follow them around and attempt to stop the QB from getting the ball to them. 


Safeties - They patrol the middle of the field behind the Linebackers.  They attempted to intercept/deflect passes, tackle ball carriers and generally make it hard for the offence to move forward.


If a team reach 4th Down, they will usually either attempt a field Goal, or if they are too far away from goal, they will elect to punt the ball to the opposition.  Both these plays have very different formations and groups of players on the field...but that's for another day!


Any questions?


Damm, I've used 1124 words!


Of course, there are loads of other things to learn - penalties, different formations, trick plays etc. But this should be enough for you to be able to watch and understand how a game works. THe

Next up, I'll be looking at another aspect of the NFL that makes it such a great sport:  How the league works, who makes the end of season playoffs and how after 5 months play we end up with a Superbowl!

NFL - Starting All Over Again

It's been a while!

June saw me take a break from the NFL, after all there wasn't much going on and a certain football tournament in Poland and the Ukraine was occupying a lot of my spare time.  But that's been and gone now, and we're just 2 months away from the start of the 2012 NFL season, so it's time to pick up the baton again.  I've got my NFL Gamepass for the season and I'll be reviewing that at a later date, I've started listening to my favourite NFL podcasts again and I've been spending far too much time on NFL websites.

If you've not read this blog before then here's a quick recap of what's been going on.  If you have read this before then apologies for wasting the next few seconds of your life:

I started blogging in December with the aim of finding an NFL team to support.  I worked in reverse and adopted a number of methods to get rid of teams - worst kit, hardest to get to, worst QB etc.  One by one I whittled done my list of potential teams until I was left with my ideal team...The Philadelphia Eagles.


By then the season had finished - long finished as far as the Eagles were concerned, so I decided to compile by list of "30 Things to Do for an NFL Fan in the UK" and crack on with the ones that could be completed in the off season.  As a consequence, I'm now a member of the British Eagles, own some NFL merchandise and have been tweeted by 3 NFL pundits.


Obviously, a lot of my tasks are long term and impossible to complete any time soon (Attend an Eagles game!), so in the meantime I want to encourage more people to give the NFL a try. I started by outlining a few reasons why I love the sport.

Then June came, and with it, a lull in my NFL activity, but now I'm back and will once again try to encourage people to give the NFL a try.  Of course, you can hype up a sport and bang on about it all you like, but if people don't understand like the on-field action then you're screwed.  Therefore, it makes sense for me to try and explain why the on field action is so captivating.

Which means that later this week, I'll be trying to explain how an NFL game works. And to make it a bit harder for myself I'll be doing it in less than 1000 words!
I don't think you need to understand about Nickels and Dimes or know the name of the Cardinals Long snapper to be able to enjoy the NFL.  The geeky stuff can come later, I just want to give an outline of how the game works.  It'd be great if the NFL fans reading this could pass it on to people who aren't into the sport.

Hmm, having said that 1000 words does seem a pretty tricky task!

Spain v Italy - The Final Statement

For the sake of their legacy, Spain needed this.  Any kind of win would have given them their third consecutive major title, but in winning this way they put themselves up their with the all time great teams.
This was their AC Milan 4 Barcelona 0, their England 3 Hungary 6, their Brazil 4 Italy 1, indeed for many of the team it would have reminded them of Barcelona 5 Real Madrid 0!  This was a statement win, it silenced the doubters who branded Spain boring and questioned the wisdom of playing without a recognised striker.  It showed just how far ahead of the pack Spain are.  Most importantly, it is a performance that will be remembered for decades to come and provided a fitting finish to a wonderful Euro 2012.

In fairness to the critics of Spain, they hadn't hit top gear during June and had been stretched by Croatia, Portugal and ironically Italy in their journey to the final.  Indeed, a lot of people (myself included) thought that the Italians would clinch a remarkable victory.  After all, they had produced the performance of the competition against Germany in the semis and handed out a 0-0 thrashing to England a few days before.  However, it was clear from almost the first minute that Spain were in the zone and getting the ball off them would be a massive task.


It seems churlish to name individuals in this team, but so much of what Spain do well goes through Xavi.  In the semi final he was poor and subsequently Spain struggled.  Here, he was everywhere. Always available for a short pass, always looking for the killer ball and always making sure Spain retained possession. An early period of play saw the Spanish string around 20 passes together before Xavi put a 20 yarder inches over the bar.  The first goal seemed inevitable and sure enough it arrived shortly after.  This time it was Iniesta and Fabregas carving up the defence allowing David Silva to head a great finish into the Italian net.  It looked very simple, but was anything but.

To Italy's credit they carried on trying to attack and had a few near misses. Casillias had to be alert to deal with some dangerous Pirlo corners, whilst Cassano stung his hands with a 25 yard smash.  The problem for Italy was sustaining any period of pressure. As soon as they lost the ball it was taking an age to get it back.
The second Spanish goal was the team in microcosm - a perfect through ball form Xavi and a gut busting 50 yard run from young Jordi Alba to get on the end of it. Perfect mix of pace, timing, technical ability and finishing. And the man at the centre of it was the left back!

I've barely mentioned Italy so far, but I actually thought they put up a good display in the Final.  They had a large dose of bad luck and had to play the last 30 minutes with ten men due to an injury to Thiago Motta, but up until that point they had competed well. Di Natele put one header over and was later denied by a great block from Casillias. But after going down to ten men, they were a spent force. The final 2 Spanish goals came as no great surprise and once again it was the assists that were as memorable as the goals.  Lovely passes from Xavi and Busquets helped to round off the scoring and 4-0 was about a fair reflection of the game.

I could go on eulogising about the Spanish performance, but I'm sure you've read numerous other reports doing the same.  Instead I'm going to go thorough my highlights of the last 3 weeks in the form of a few Top 5's:

Top 5 Matches

1. Spain v Italy Group C - Little did we know that it would be a preview of the final, but it was great seeing 2 high quality teams giving a masterclass in passing and possession.  Best of all, they both played to win, which is not always the case during the Group stages.

2. Denmark v Portugal - 5 goals, numerous near misses and a fantastic second half.  The of game that may be gone when the competition expands to 24 teams.

3.  Germany v Italy -  The night Mario Balotelli showed he can be great.  And the night that Andrea Pirlo confirmed just how great he is. Germany played with class but Italy stood firm and probably should have won by more.

4.  Poland v Greece - The best Euro opener since.....well certainly since I started watching the sport. Red cards, goals, brilliant atmosphere, controversy and a penalty save from a reserve keeper.

5. Russia v Poland - Just a joy to watch. End to end action, wonderful moves and a fantastic goal from the Polish skipper.  The subsequent celebration will be one of the abiding memories of the whole competition.


Top 5 Goals


1. Ibrahimovic v France - Zlatan can now lay claim to the best goal at each of the last 3 Euros!  I had the privilege of being there to witness his absurd back heel volley against Italy in 2004, and whilst this bullet of a volley from a horizontal position wasn't quite in that class, it was certainly the best on show at this tournament.  If only the rest of the Swedish team were as good!

2.  Blaszczykowski v Russia - See above. Wonderful moment in a wonderful game. The Dortmund midfielders first touch and finish were both of the highest order.  The knee slide wasn't bad either!

3.  Jordi Alba v Italy - Spain in microcosm.  Amazingly, they only had 2 players in the Italian half during the entire move, but Xavi and Alba found a way to goal.  Alba may have settled the "who's the best left back" debate for a good few years.

4.  Van der Vaart v Portugal - Largely forgotten due to the subsequent collapse of the Dutch, but just for a few minutes it looked like Holland were clicking.  This was a lovely 25 yard curler that flew into the corner of the net.  The less said about the subsequent 75 minutes the better.

5.  Pavlychenko v Czech Rep - Roman only came on for the last 20 minutes, but still provided an assist and a goal. His goal saw him take a couple of touches on the edge of the area before unleashing a rocket into the top corner.  We all thought Russia were destined for great things...one week later they were out.


Top 5 Teams

1. Spain - Not at their best for much of the competition, but still in a league of their own.  Rounded it off with a stunning destruction of Italy in the final.

2.  Italy - Exceeded all expectations with brilliant performances against Spain, England and Germany. In Pirlo, they had one of the stars of the tournament. Whilst younger players like Marcissio, Montelivo, Bonucci and Balotelli showed that this team could be around for a few years.  A world away from some of the negative Italian sides of the past.

3. Germany - This was their time....or at least it was until Italy came along.  They waltzed through a tough Group and the destruction of Greece in the Quarter Final was one of the highlights of the competition. 4 semi finals in a row for this young side, and there's no sign of them going away any time soon.

4.  Portugal - Gave Spain their toughest night. Yes, Ronaldo was excellent, but there's so much more to this side.  Pepe, Alves, Coentrao, Moutinho, Pereira and Patricio all had superb tournaments.  The display against Holland was a pleasure to watch and Ronaldo could have had about 6 goals!

5.  Croatia - Pity poor Ireland, not only did they have the 2 finalists in their Group but they also had this lot from the Baltics.  After brushing the Irish aside, Croatia claimed a deserved draw with Italy and if Rapatic had converted his header against Spain we could have been looking at a different winner.  Had a terrible draw, and on this evidence they would have walked Groups A or D.

So that was Euro 2012.  I wouldn't quite put it in the league of Euro 200, but it was certainly a memorable event and showed why 16 teams is the perfect amount for a tournament. I've thoroughly enjoyed writing about it and am already looking forward to overdosing on coffee in 2 years time!

The Easy Way to Buy NFL Merchandise

Being a recent convert to the Philadelphia Eagles, I want to rubber stamp my support by buying some Eagles merchandise.  I'd actually made a purchase just after becoming a fan, but that was a present for somebody else and to be honest, I hadn't been overly impressed with the service I'd received.  The delivery time was very slow and whilst they kept me informed of the delays, it took around 4 weeks for the product to be delivered.  So, when I found out about a new UK based NFL merchandise site, I was keen to see what they could offer.  
NFLMerchandise.co.uk has a wide range of NFL products and provides a much quicker service than many other sellers.  Best of all, it's easy to use!  Seriously, the amount of time that I spent navigating around online shopping sites is absurd.  I just want to access the products, see the specifications and make my purchase.  Amazon manage to do it easily enough, but many other sites struggle.  Luckily, NFLMerchandise.co.uk doesn't have this problem.

Straight away, I was looking through the impressive selection of  2012/13 Eagles shirts (There is also a vast collection of caps and retro shirts) .  Being a new Eagles fan, I don't yet have a favourite player, so picking the right shirt isn't an easy task.  For a start, I don't want to end up with a player that is either a) rubbish or b) not an Eagle.  Please note the amount of Bronco's fans proudly sporting their Tebow 15 shirts this season!  I want a player who's going to be an Eagles star for years to come....I want a LeSean McCoy shirt.

The site provides an excellent set of specifications for the product.  "Strategic Ventilation for Breathabilty", "TPU Shield at V Neck", "Tailored Fit Designed for Movement" etc etc.  It all adds up to exactly what I'm looking for - a 100% authentic NFL replica shirt.  No cheap knock offs, no tacky imitations, just a genuine NFL shirt.  It then just requires a simple few clicks (plus the dreaded card details!) and I've got a top notch NFL product on it's way to me.  What's more, it's on it's way to me in the next few days. The site guarantees that products are dispatched after 3 days and are sent via recorded delivery - so you shouldn't have to wait more than a week before receiving your product.

All in all, I'd highly recommend a trip to NFLMerchandise.co.uk - you won't be disappointed!