Keep the Faith

You're the manager of one of the biggest football clubs in England, you've got a big reputation from previous jobs, you've won a European trophy and been assistant boss for your country.  You've been in the job for 3 years and the club has just finished 11th in the league!  Half way through the next season you're 4th bottom in the league and have just lost 5-1 to your local rivals.



"There's been a murder!"



Seems unfeasible that you'd still have a job - especially as the fans have unfurled a banner stating "Three years of excuses and it's still crap...ta-ra".  You can't imagine a top manager surviving that kind of record, but that is exactly the position a chap called Alex Ferguson was in at the end of the 80s.

When you look at the way some coaches are disposed of, you can't thinking that maybe there were some potential "Fergusons" that were never allowed to develop.  It's bad enough when you see Premier League managers sacked after a bad few months, but in the NFL coaches get booted after even less time.  Take Hue Jackson at Oakland, one season in charge, 50% win rate, one win from winning the AFC West and it's goodbye.  Jackson was taking over from Tom Cable who had an identical record the previous season!  It just seems like a lot of change for changes sake. Sure there are background issues within all sports teams but that's unavoidable and will exist whoever is in charge.  The owners in Kansas were even less patient - a play off appearance last season was soon forgotten as Todd Haley was given the sack during the 2011 season - despite having to cope with an array of injuries to key players. 


Yes, some firings are entirely deserved and yes, some coaching changes reap instant and long term benefits, but it's undeniable that a lot of clubs are far too quick in pulling the trigger.  After all, it stands to reason that a new manager will want to implant his own methods and style on the team and that takes time. He will also want to make personnel changes and this cannot happen after night.  Like in the case Ferguson, it takes time to build a team and then to rebuild them.


The nearest NFL equivalent to Ferguson is Bill Belichick, in his first season as the Patriots head coach in 2000 he won just 5 matches. But the owners stuck with him and now the team are about to make their 5th Superbowl appearance of the Belichick era.  Not quite as dramatic, but the owners in Houston deserve a bit of credit for sticking with Gary Kubiak this season.  After a few seasons of underachievement there was alot of pressure on him to be fired, but he stayed and the team won their division and ended up just one score away form making the AFC Championship game.


So, I don't want to be supporting a team that chops and changes between coaches too much. I want continuity and time for the team to develop an identity. If we look at the NFL since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2001, then the teams have each had the following number of coaches:



Raiders 7
Dolphins 7
49ers 6
Rams 6
Falcons 6
Lions 5
Browns 5
Bills 5
Redskins 4
Cowboys 4
Chiefs 4
Broncos 4
Vikings 3
Seahawks 3
Jets 3
Jaguars 3
Cardinals 3
Buccaneers 3
Titans 2
Texans 2
Steelers 2
Saints 2
Ravens 2
Panthers 2
Packers 2
Giants 2
Colts 2
Chargers 2
Bengals 2
Bears 2
Patriots 1
Eagles 1

NB: I've included interim coaches because they have been in charge of matches and would have been influencing the teams play.


Only 2 coaches have lasted ten years, surprisingly one of those (Andy Reid) has survived in his job without winning the Superbowl - he's like an NFL version of David Moyes, but even less likely to say something interesting

What's also apparent is that the SuperBowl winners in the last ten years have employed no more than 2 coaches each - despite none of the coaches winning the trophy in their first season in charge.  Clearly, keeping the faith with these people paid dividends.

All of which means that I'm saying goodbye to the Miami Dolphins, as the Raiders have already been eliminated.
Bit of a shame as I can see Miami being a team on the up next season and were one of the teams I was expecting to be in my final dozen or so teams.


Eliminated Teams - Steelers, Rams, Colts, Chiefs, Jags, Bucs, Chargers, Pats, Saints, Bears, Raiders, Cardinals, Dolphins.


So just 18 more teams to remove!