32 to 1

It's about time to tick off another of my "30 Things To Do", and what better way to do it then by talking about another aspect of the NFL that helps make it such a great League. I'm talking about parity, and how that's reflected in the betting markets for the upcoming season.  I'll also be making my selections for the season and placing a few quid on the Eagles winning the SuperBowl.  Feel free to mock, but when.....oh who am I kidding?

A look at the betting for the English Premier League shows that the 2 Manchester clubs are short odds favourites, with Chelsea (5-1) and Arsenal (11-1).  Then there's a big gap to Spurs and Liverpool at 25-1 and a monstrous gap to 7th favourites Newcastle at 175-1.  As for the rest, well let's just say that there's more chance of Bono becoming the next Pope!  Actually scratch that, Mr Hewson is currently 1000-1 to succeed Benedict XVI, which is the same odds as Aston Villa and Stoke have of Premier League glory, and they are only halfway down the betting list!  Teams such as Wigan and Southampton are as long as 5000-1 to win!  You get the idea, essentially around 75% of the league are playing for minor places and avoiding relegation.  I can understand how that's fun for a newly promoted team - Swansea fans will have had a great time last season, but it must be getting a bit dull for the likes of Everton, Stoke and Aston Villa.

It's not just the English Premier League that has this problem, it's a similar story in Spain, Italy, Portugal and other European leagues, whilst in Scotland the engraver has already etched in the name on the 2012-13 league trophy (No, not Falkirk!).

Meanwhile, in the NFL the joint favourites for the Superbowl next season are the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers who are both 13-2.  Behind them there are 11 more teams ranked at 20-1 or shorter.  Yes, there are a few also rans - 5 teams are 100 or 150-1, but even those teams won't have given up hope of at least making the play offs...well OK maybe the Browns have.

Pretty much every NFL fan will go into the season thinking their teams has a chance, and that's a great thing. Looking at the 16 fixtures for Week 1 of the season, it's very hard to pick a winner in all bar 3 of them.  I've previously discussed the reasons for this parity - Salary Caps, the Draft, the Schedule etc - and it's clear that the NFL is structured to give everyone a chance.

This doesn't help me much when it comes to placing wagers for the new season.  I'm committed to betting on the Eagles so get £10 of my money.  Although if I'm being honest I don't think the odds of 12-1 are particularly appealing.  As for other bets, here are my tips for the 2012 NFL season...

SuperBowl Winners
I've been saying all year that the Bears were a good bet for glory and I'm not going to change now.  They've actually drifted in from 25 to 20-1 but I still think this is good EW value. Forte, Cutler, Marshall is a formidable offensive trio.
If you're looking for an outsider, then the Titans at 50-1 could have some merit. They've got a relatively easy Division this season, only just missed out last year and once you're in the play off anything can happen.

Regular Season MVP
The bookies seem convinced it will be a QB and I agree with them. Rodgers, Brees and Brady are the obvious favourites and I think Aaron Rodgers will take some beating in this category, but at 11-2 he's not great value.
Looking a bit further down the list, I like the look of Cam Newton at 33-1.  Yes, he might have a 2nd year slump, but if he doesn't and if he continues his current rate of progress he'll be virtually unplayable.  If the Panthers are play off contenders then Newton could well be in the MVP running

Most Receiving Yards
This is a non event as far as the bookies are concerned. Calvin Johnson is a very short 3-1 to win this, whilst his namesake Andre is a distant second at 17-2.  Given the regularity of injuries in the NFL, I think 3-1 is far too short to be of interest.  Johnson (C) may well scoop the honours, but at 3-1 he's not going to make me rich!
A better value EW bet may be Miles Austin at 25-1.  He's  a regular downfield receiver and should be Tony Romo's number one target, especially given Dez Bryant's off field problems.  Overall though, this is probably a category best left alone.

Most Passing Yards
A similar race to the MVP one, but this way have a couple of additional contenders.  I can see Matt Stafford  putting up huge numbers again in Detroit. He's relatively short at 7-1 but I definitely think he'll be in the top 3.
It's tough to look past the usual suspects in this section, perhaps Matt Schaub at 16-1 could be a reasonable outside dabble, but it's tough to find much value here.

Most Rushing Yards
Finally a decent Eagles bet, at 10-1 LeSean McCoy is excellent value for this category.  He's rate of improvement is superb and he will be playing behind a strong O line and a (hopefully) more mature, less flamboyant QB.
Further down the list, injuries have seen Adrian Peterson drift out to 20-1, but if the Vikings star starts the season fit, he could be a major threat.  I can also see Fred Jackson (25-1) having a very strong season.


There we have it then, a quick guide on how to lose some money!  I accept no responsibly for any debt incurred and I would encourage you not to visit any "pay day lenders" to fund your bets!

I'm off to the Olympics next week, so I may throw in a report of how that goes.  It'll be the only chance I'll ever get to write a blog on Amateur Boxing and Hockey.
My next NFL piece, will be a look ahead to the preseason matches and why I'm not a fan of preseason matches!